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The bank’s  comes out Wednesday, April 16.

Today’s interest rate sits at 2.75 per cent, which is a figure banks and money lenders use to calculate the interest on mortgages and loans.

A year ago, the bank’s interest rate was at five per cent, as Canada’s inflation rate was also high, and the bank wanted to bring it back to a two per cent target.

The rate started to decrease last June, and has dropped with each subsequent rate announcement.

“The Bank of Canada is increasingly likely to cut its policy rate further,” TD Bank director and senior economist James Orlando . “While pricing for April is still undecided, we think the bank should keep cutting by at least another 50 (basis points) over the coming months in order to cushion the blow from tariffs.”

On April 4, Statistics Canada released its monthly employment figures recently, which showed 28,000 jobs were lost in March.

That news also pointed to the bank easing its interest rates.

”(The) discouraging jobs report showcases the downside risks to the economy, which warrants further action from the Bank of Canada,” Orlando said.

He also noted the impact of United States trade tariffs appears to be working its way through the economy.

“Businesses and consumers are naturally hesitant in the face of heightened political uncertainty,” Orlando said.

A 25 per cent tariff on cars and light trucks imported to the U.S. went into effect April 3, with 25 per cent tariffs on all foreign steel and aluminum beginning March 12.

On April 9, Trump announced a tariff pause against many countries for 90 days, but Canada was not included. 

“There are already signs that tariffs have begun to push up costs earlier in the production cycle,” RBC senior economist Claire Fan and economist Carrie Freestone .

The Bank of Canada recently  from February, which showed “the escalating trade conflict with the United States is damaging consumer sentiment.”

The survey took place between Feb. 6 and 26.

“Consumers expect the trade conflict to lead to a higher cost of living,” the bank noted in its survey. “This is reflected in their short-term inflation expectations, which rose in the first quarter of 2025.”

Many survey participants said they had concerns about job security as a result of the trade conflict.

“Expectations for recession have risen, with 32 per cent of firms now operating under the assumption that Canada will enter an economic contraction over the next year,” TD Bank economist Maria Solovieva .

It means businesses and consumers are shifting into defensive mode.

With residents scaling back spending, the Bank of Canada will be watching the inflation rate, and how that will impact its next announcement.