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Vitalii Starov, vice-president of product growth at insurtech company MyChoice Financial, explained the data used for the study contains historical data collected over the past 50 to 60 years.

Starov said their most recent flood risk study, published in August 2024, provides a good understanding of the urban areas most at risk of floods in Ontario — but notes the risk ranking could change in upcoming years due to climate change.

At the moment, Starov said Ajax, Ottawa, Mississauga, Toronto and Brampton are the top five cities most at risk of floods in Ontario, based on historical data.

“This should apply to spring floods as well,” he said.

Other cities that ranked high on the list include Brantford and Vaughan.

Based on its analysis, MyChoice ranked communities from one to five — with five being the highest risk for flooding.��

The study took into account meteorological conditions such as daily precipitation and mean annual rainfall, distance to rivers and drainage density, land use and soil moisture, terrain characteristics such as slope and elevation and urban infrastructure including road density.

“These variables allowed us to perform a detailed assessment of flood risks in urban areas,” MyChoice explained.

Other areas that made the top 20 list for most flood-prone cities in Ontario were: Sarnia, Markham, Lakeshore, Brockville, Belleville, Oshawa, St. Catharines, Caledon, Kingston, Burlington, LaSalle, Windsor and Peterborough.

MyChoice notes areas with a significant concentration of at-risk municipalities for flooding are in the Greater Toronto Area and eastern Ontario.

“These cities are characterized by dense populations, extensive infrastructure, and increasing urbanization — factors that exacerbate their flood vulnerability,” MyChoice explains.

Flash floods in Toronto and southern Ontario last July caused more than $940 million in insured damages, according to the .��

The  10 per cent of households — 1.8 million — are currently at very high risk of flooding.

Starov said last year was a record year for weather-related insurance losses in the country’s history, reaching $8.5 billion.

Higher replacement costs of houses due to inflation and tariffs, combined with the increased number of natural disasters, is pushing insurers to either recalibrate the rates to keep up with escalating risks or to simply limit their coverage.

“It’s definitely becoming more common for some insurers to limit their coverage in disaster-prone areas,” said Starov.��

MyChoice reports since last year and by 79.05 per cent since 2015.

Starov said most standard don’t cover ���ǰ���, so consumers may need to add these coverages separately.

Homeowners are recommended to review their home insurance policy to make sure they’re covered and take small proactive steps — such as installing a , which can significantly mitigate flood damage.

What about flooding in Ontario this spring?

Mike Fenn, spokesperson for the Ministry of Natural Resources, said high water levels and flooding can occur any time — especially in low-lying areas near rivers, lakes and streams.

“The ministry monitors conditions daily to provide early warnings and assess flood potential,” he said. “While certain weather patterns may increase flood risk, long-term flood predictions depend on factors like precipitation, temperature, and snowmelt.”

Fenn said flood preparedness includes monitoring water levels, weather forecasts, and snow data, managing dam operations and maintaining regular communication with conservation authorities and municipalities.

Flood updates are provided through the Flood Forecasting and Warning Program.

From 2012 to 2024, Emergency Management Ontario reported two to 25 annual flooding events, with the highest reported in 2019.

“Current water levels are within seasonal ranges, with slightly higher temperatures and precipitation expected this spring,” said Fenn.

Fenn said the Muskoka area snowpack held 133—203 mm of water in early March, which he said was within the normal range.

“While some areas received more snow than usual, this doesn’t necessarily increase flood risk,” he said.

For flood preparedness and updates, check out . You can also view the Ontario .

For more information, check out the .��