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“With all the headlines about economic headwinds — slowing growth, trade uncertainty and the threat of new U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods — it’s easy to assume we’re heading into tough times,” Nick L’Ecuyer, ’ principal broker and founder, said. “While that may be true in some sectors, from a mortgage and borrowing perspective, this environment might actually create some real opportunity for Canadians.”

How the markets influence your mortgage

The reason he’s optimistic is when markets get nervous, investors typically shift money into safer assets like government bonds, he said.

“That demand pushes bond yields down, and when bond yields fall, fixed mortgage rates usually follow. So even though the broader economic picture looks shaky, we’re already starting to see the early signs of lower fixed rates ahead.”

More rate cuts on the horizon

The Bank of Canada just cut its overnight key lending rate by a quarter per cent March 12, bringing the interest rate to 2.75 per cent.

“On top of that, the Bank of Canada is expected to cut its overnight rate by 0.75 per cent this year, which would bring the prime rate down to 4.45 per cent,” L’Ecuyer said. “If that happens, we could see variable mortgage rates dip into the mid-three per cent range — something we haven’t seen in a long time.”

This is especially welcome news for borrowers who are part of the so-called “renewal wave” with approximately 1.2 million Canadians expecting to renew their mortgages this year.

“These are homeowners who locked in rates of one-to-two per cent during the low-interest period of the pandemic and have been bracing for renewal rates in the five-to-six per cent range,” L’Ecuyer said. “While rates won’t return to pandemic-era levels, these recent shifts mean the jump at renewal may not be as painful as expected — and that’s a huge relief for many Canadians.”

Tariffs don’t touch your mortgage payment

While tariffs will impact the goods you purchase for the household, including groceries, steel and aluminum, they won’t impact your monthly mortgage payments.

“While the headlines might sound negative, these same economic pressures are creating a window of opportunity for mortgage borrowers,” L’Ecuyer said.

As mortgage rates come down, it is creating some wiggle room for first-time buyers to make a purchase, just as the springtime real estate market heats up.

“We expect housing sales and prices to rebound as lower mortgage rates and changes to mortgage rules unlock pent-up demand in the short term,” the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) . “Millennials, many of whom are first-time buyers, are currently driving housing demand. As remote work declines, we assume this group will prioritize being closer to jobs, boosting sales recovery in larger urban markets.”

As first-time homebuyers get into their first homes, it means there may be more vacancy in the rental market, CMHC said. Higher vacancy rates will in turn slow rent growth.

“Renter affordability will improve gradually, with more noticeable changes happening later in the forecast period.”